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The Two Germanies

Alexandrina Guran, PhD

Germany today is a unified and industrialized country. However, some of its current trends in population, economy, or politics can only be understood fully when considering its divided history.

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At the time of reunification in 1990, the population size in West Germany was four times higher than in the East, formally called the German Democratic Republic (GDR). Since then, this disparity has only increased. Nationwide, Germans die more than they give birth. This is the case for many industrialized countries: Birth rates have dropped below the replacement fertility rate, which lies at roughly 2.1 births per woman . In 2022, German women only average 1.46 births through their lifetimes . This number has not changed much over the last decade, and the difference between birth rates in the former West and East fluctuates but is small overall. However, Germany´s overall population rate is relatively stable, even increasing slightly . Population stability is only possible because Germany has seen a relatively high influx of migrants over the last few decades. However, these do not distribute evenly across the Republic. The net migration to the West is about five times higher than the migration to the East , proportional to the base population size. The population in the East is also more homogenous. A smaller percentage of people in the East do not hold a German passport (7% in the East vs 16% in the West). This may have contributed to noticeable differences in the political landscapes across the “two Germanys”.

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Since the reunification, we should also consider migration within Germany. The migratory movement from East to West was especially strong right after the Wall fell. Migratory movement differed between population groups, and mainly younger people chose to head to the West. This makes sense; young people have fewer ties to their location – especially if they do not have children yet – and benefit more from increased opportunities in a new place than someone with fewer working years left in their career. But this also puts a strain on parts of the East´s infrastructure as the East tends to be older. 27% of the East’s population is above 65 years old (in 2022), as compared to only 21% in the West , creating a higher load on the social security system. Older people tend to no longer contribute to the social security system but rather to be its beneficiaries, through obtaining state pension or social support. A region with many pensioners and, relatively speaking, fewer people of working age tends to have a weaker economy , all else being equal. Older people also tend to get sick more often or suffer from chronic illnesses at higher rates than younger people , putting a greater strain on the healthcare system . However, change may be on the horizon since net migration has changed direction from West to East as of 2017 .

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Sources

1: see Max Roser (2023) - “Population momentum: If the number of children per woman is falling, why is the population still increasing?”  Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/population-momentum' [Online Resource]

 And Giertel-Basten & Scherbov, 2019: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11113-019-09561-y

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2: Birthrates in Germany: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Geburten/Tabellen/geburtenziffer.html 

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3: German population statistics: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Bevoelkerungsstand/_inhalt.html

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4: Interesting resource on population differences between East and West, in German https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Querschnitt/Demografischer-Wandel/Aspekte/demografie-bevoelkerungsentwicklung-ost-west.html

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5: CAVE: Average population age and GDP are highly correlated. Thus, one may rashly conclude that people of higher age may contribute more to the economy when looking at statistics across different countries. The more likely (and supported conclusion), however, is that countries with a higher GDP allow people to live healthier, safer lives, increasing their lifespan substantially.

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6: Internetredaktion, R. B. L. (n.d.). Viele Erkrankungen werden mit dem Alter häufig—DLR Gesundheitsforschung. Deutsche Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt e.V. - DLR Gesundheitsforschung. Retrieved 9 May 2024, from https://www.gesundheitsforschung-bmbf.de/de/viele-erkrankungen-werden-mit-dem-alter-haufig-6786.php

 

7: OECD Health expenditure data: https://www.oecd.org/health/Expenditure-by-disease-age-and-gender-FOCUS-April2016.pdf 

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